For the past few years, the residents of Hassanabad in Hunza had started fearing the mountain stream that had been flowing beside their homes for generations. This village in Gilgit-Baltistan lies along the Karakoram Highway and the stream coming from the Shisper Glacier has been flowing through it for centuries. But in recent times, the increase in frequency of avalanches falling into the stream had started turning it into a potential precursor of disaster.

In July this year, the fear of Hassanabad’s residents turned into reality.

Malaika Bibi, a resident of the village, says the flood in the stream was so fierce that the ground itself began to collapse. The raging floodwater first swept away the highway and then her home. Seventeen other houses were also destroyed.

“We had built our house with the money earned through hard work and labour. Now, we have neither land nor the strength to rebuild the house. We are farmers but now we have neither crops nor fields for farming,” bemoans Bibi.

Her family could manage to save just their lives and a few precious belongings. Malaika is now living with her parents and three siblings in a tent, two kilometers from her village, provided by flood relief workers.

According to the Gilgit-Baltistan Disaster Management Authority (GBDMA), since the late July this year, at least 45 people have lost their lives in climate disasters across the province. Damage to crops, farmland, water channels, small hydropower stations, transmission lines, roads, bridges and infrastructure is being reported from left, right and centre, with no sign of halt in sight.

Eman Shah, special assistant to the chief minister (SACM) of Gilgit-Baltistan, admits that the situation is unprecedented and such conditions never went on a stretch for two consecutive months. He is simply flabbergasted.

“The fatal combination of cloudbursts and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) has caused widespread destruction. With very limited resources, our focus is yet on the rescue and emergency relief, while assessments of the damages are underway.”

According to Shehzad Baig, assistant director and admin coordinator at the GBDMA, cloudbursts are a new phenomenon for the region.

“In the past 15 years, only three such incidents were recorded here but now cloudbursts are happening almost every day now. These incidents have affected all districts of Gilgit-Baltistan, leaving no road safe, including the Karakoram Highway.”

Baig says Gilgit-Baltistan is home to more than 7,000 lakes with nearly three dozen of them, being glacial lakes, are highly dangerous because they can burst with the rise in temperatures and pressure, triggering major disasters.

A cloudburst is a climatic phenomenon and experts explain it in the following way.

Moist winds, when pushed upward along cool mountain slopes, condense into clouds that normally lead to rainfall. But if these clouds face intense and continuous pressure from warm, humid air rising from below, they are unable to release rain. Instead, water keeps building up inside them. The moment the pressure decreases or the clouds can no longer hold the load, they suddenly burst. In simple terms, a cloudburst means 100mm of rainfall (about 4 inches) within an hour or less time over an area of 20 to 30 square kilometers.

A glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) literally means a flood caused by a glacial lake burst. Glaciers are vast sheets of ice that remain frozen year-round on high mountains. Pakistan’s largest glacier is Siachen, stretching 76km. It is the second largest non-polar glacier in the world. It is followed by Baltoro which is 63km long. According to a new study, Pakistan has more than 13,000 glaciers and they are primarily located in northern Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

With rising temperatures, parts of these glaciers melt and form icy lakes. These lakes usually remain blocked by solid ice, rocks or debris. This is how many lakes turn into natural dams. But if the melting speeds up and more water flows into the lake or if the ice blocking its path begins to melt, the natural dam bursts. A mix of water, ice, rocks, and debris then rushes down the slopes with furious speed, sweeping away everything in its path. This phenomenon is called GLOF.

Dr Zainab Naeem, a climate expert, tells Lok Sujag that this year before the monsoon, the temperature in Gilgit-Baltistan was 6 to 7 degrees Celcius more than the average temperature which, on the one hand, led to the incidents of cloudbursts while on the other hand quickened the process of ice melting. She explains that the rise in the rate of glacier melting increases the pressure on the soil or soil layer frozen under the ice, which also starts sliding, causing glacial lakes to burst (GLOF).

She says that the cloudbursts and GLOFs in Gilgit-Baltistan are different in nature but the link between them is growing stronger. “Heavy rainfall caused by cloudbursts speeds up glacier melting and puts extra pressure on drainage systems. The weak points of glacial lakes cannot withstand this extra pressure and eventually burst.”

Dr Zainab explains that when a cloudburst and a GLOF occur simultaneously, one disaster amplifies the other. Torrents of rainwater, glacier ice and frozen soil debris rush downhill at a high speed, leading to major catastrophes.

Environmental expert Maryam Shabbir says that the problems of rapid melt of glaciers and GLOFs were already there but now their frequency is making life more difficult for the people of the region. She believes that the rate of temperature increase in mountainous areas is comparatively higher than in other regions and one significant cause of this climate change is the unregulated deforestation.

She emphasizes that the real issue is the unchecked emission of greenhouse gases at the global level.

“The world has failed to control the rise in temperature,” she points out.

In the 2015 Paris Agreement, all countries agreed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Dr Zainab Naeem says that the recent two-month-long floods in Gilgit-Baltistan show that the region’s weather patterns are changing in a major way.

“Floods for a short period used to occur in these areas earlier too, but now it seems that these continuous changes are taking the region to a long-term climate disaster,” she apprehends.

According to the GBDMA officials, part of the Shishper Glacier in Hassanabad has been breaking for years, and the danger still exists. However, this season there was no GLOF incident, all the damage was caused by cloudbursts.

However, Dr Zainab Naeem says the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and other departments of Gilgit-Baltistan work without proper coordination, which result in delays in disaster management efforts. “The lack of implementation of environmental laws and constructions in the river bed and stream pathways increases the risks. Early warning systems in the region are weak, and there is a severe shortage of technical expertise, real-time monitoring and funding. Local communities often have to rely on short-term donor projects, while these donor projects often overlook the local knowledge.”

Dr Zainab believes that national and regional environmental policies in the country are fragmented. The National Climate Change Policy and the National Adaptation Plan mention GLOF but they remain ineffective due to poor implementation.

She says that disaster risk reduction (DRR) should be a central part of the climate policy but it is often treated as a humanitarian or post-disaster measure. To address these weaknesses in Gilgit-Baltistan, she calls for an effective strategy to bring together technology, infrastructure, natural systems and local community.

Episode 5 of Lok Sujag’s documentary series Stolen Verdicts, “The Story of the 1965 Elections: When a Woman Challenged a Dictator,”

A skills training program for the transgender community by the Balochistan government: For the first time in the province’s history, the Balochistan government has launched a special training program to provide respectable employment opportunities and skill development for the transgender community. Under this initiative, participants are being trained in tailoring, embroidery, beautician courses, computer skills, and other vocational skills. Currently, 60 transgender individuals are receiving training through this program so they can play an active and independent role in society.

The program, running under the Balochistan Endowment Fund, is not only teaching skills but also providing education to participants. Trainees say this initiative will help eliminate the negative perception that transgender people cannot engage in respectable work.

Siraaj, a participant at the training center, said, “Here we have learned beautician skills such as eyebrow shaping, hair coloring, henna application, and waxing. Most importantly, we have received respect and confidence here. Now we can proudly say we earn a dignified living.”

Another participant, Anzela, said, “We have completed computer courses and now plan to open shops and stand on our own feet. Earlier we were struggling in life, but now we hope for a better future.”

To fight climate change, we need finance. But without equitable use of financial resources, climate action will remain unjust and out of reach for those most affected. In the past, IPP contracts and energy sector investments have largely benefited a few powerful actors failing to deliver affordable, reliable energy to the majority. This pattern of elite capture must be addressed if we are to build a just, inclusive, and sustainable energy future

Residing in Nabi Bakhsh Palari, a village situated on a small island in Kenjhar Lake, Kamal Palari was renowned for his bird-hunting prowess across Thatta, Hyderabad, and Jamshoro. However, in 2008, his life underwent a significant transformation when he established a friendship with a World Wildlife Fund official, leading to a complete shift in his identity.

He oversees wildlife protection in his village by managing a Community Reserve Zone designated as a Protected Area.

"Hunting birds is a distant thing; now aerial firing is also prohibited here," Kamal says.

Kenjhar Lake, like other lakes in lower Sindh, serves as a habitat for migratory birds arriving from the north.

Every year, these migratory birds cover thousands of miles from Siberia and Central Asia, settling in the lakes of Sindh between December and January.

The fluctuations in human activities and alterations in water reservoirs, attributed to climatic variations, directly impact these migratory birds' numbers, health, and survival.

52-year-old Kamal Palari, seated in his otaq (guest room) surrounded by neem, acacia, and devi trees, told Lok Sujag in his Kohistani accent that following the floods of 2022, the usual influx of migratory birds to Kenjhar Lake has noticeably diminished.

Haroon Palari, Kamal's maternal cousin and an avid wildlife photographer, has been actively conserving and tallying the birds arriving at Kenjhar Lake for the past 12 years. Haroon concurs with Kamal's observation.

Haroon said that during his recent count, he identified 52 fire crows and 12 Gargene ducks, a stark contrast to previous counts where their numbers used to be in the hundreds.

Rasheed Ahmad Khan serves as the deputy sanctuary warden for the wildlife department in two districts of Sindh: Thatta and Sajawal. Based at Haliji Lake, he has been conducting bird censuses annually since 1984.

He explains that the methodology employed for bird counting involves using binoculars and a blocking technique.

According to Rasheed, during the bird counting conducted in Sindh from January 15 to February 15 of the current year, 613,000 birds were counted, whereas the count was 661,000 last year.

He mentioned that during the current year, 16,000 birds arrived at Haliji Lake.

In comparison, the count was 45,000 last year, 66,000 in 2021, and 97,000 in 2020.

Ashraf Bhargari, the staff in charge at Haliji, told Lok Sujag that since 2019, feeds such as pulses, wheat bran, and fodder have been provided to birds and other wildlife on the lake.

This initiative has resulted in an increase in the number of birds visiting the lake.

Rasheed expressed regret, citing a lack of resources as the reason for not providing feed after the floods of 2022. He voiced concern that this could be a reason for the decline in bird arrivals.

According to Rasheed, this year's migrating birds include Chico Duck, Stilt, Charo Duck, Ruddy Shelduck, Red-crested Pochard, Tufted Duck, Gadwall, Shoveler, Egyptian Goose, and Black-crowned Night Heron. Local bird species encompass Hangar duck, Lesser Chiko duck, and Bali goose.

According to him, in the bird census of 2023, some rarely seen migrating birds included the white shrike and the red beak.

"Perhaps they have become rare," he says.

He notes a decrease in the number of birds at Haliji this year but an increase in bird counts in Badin, Nariari Lake, and Ranipur Dam in Nangar Parkar. This is in contrast to the past when there were very few sightings in those areas.

Abdul Razzaq Khan, the research officer of the Zoological Survey of Pakistan, sees the situation differently.

He says the estimation of the decline in the number of birds is incorrect.

He states that the migrating guest birds perceived the entire Sindh as a lake this year.

Consequently, they deviated from their traditional habitats and landed where food and tranquillity were readily available.

In his observation during December and January of the current year, he noted that areas affected by floods, including Khairpur Mirs, Dadu, Jamshoro, Badin, and Thatta, witnessed more birds than the usual count.

Asif Sandilo is pursuing his PhD in wildlife at the University of Georgia, USA.

Before that, he worked for ten years with the World Wildlife Fund in Pakistan. He has systematically studied bird migration, behaviour, and life cycles.

He told Lok Sujag that the diet of migratory birds includes small fish, insects, larvae, and other small animals.

He says that after the floods, migratory birds choose their new habitats based on the availability of food and safety. These birds appear to adapt their nesting and living conditions according to the changes in water reservoirs.

"Many areas still have standing water. Manchar Lake has expanded so much that residents of Dadu and Sehwan cannot even pinpoint where it begins and where it ends. The impact of these changes was inevitable."

Asif says that instead of a decrease, the floods have likely increased the number of birds because they now have abundant food and new habitats.

Behind this estimate is his experience with the floods of 2010. He said that the World Wildlife Fund conducted a survey on the Indus Dolphin in 2011. This rare species is found between Guddu and Sukkur Barrage, and the survey covered this region. However, the dolphin was also discovered in Kotri Barrage, over three hundred kilometres from Sukkur, which was a surprising finding for experts.

He attributed the expansion of the dolphin population's habitat to the flood. He mentions that the emerging factors in bird counting this year were overlooked, which is not ideal.

Abdul Razzaq of the Zoological Survey of Pakistan rejects the methodology of the Wildlife Department's bird counting, considering it flawed.

He says that the department focuses on lakes like Keenjhar, Haliji, Hamal, Manchar, Nariari, and a few others for bird counting, which he considers insufficient. According to him, the data collected is incomplete.

Abdul Razzaq says the department lacks the necessary staff, vehicles, and resources to conduct bird counting throughout Sindh. He's of the opinion that the current methodology is not in line with internationally accepted scientific standards.

Javed Ahmed Mehr attributes the challenges to the lack of resources and the knowledge and training gaps among the department's officials. Javed has a master's degree in Forestry from the Pakistan Forest Institute and currently serves as a conservator in the Sindh Forest Department.

He says that legislation regarding forests and environmental conservation in Sindh is well-crafted, but the personnel lack the competence and training to implement it effectively.

"Most of the old employees are those whose basic skill set revolves around hunting and collecting."

Javed mentions that the presence of migratory birds in Sindh is temporary. This year, they had more water bodies available, so they settled where there was food and safety.

He acknowledged that bird counting in Sindh is limited to only 30 per cent of water bodies. This year, the new non-traditional water bodies were not included.

He said that not only should bird counting be based on scientific principles, but the methodology should also be adapted to accommodate changes in water bodies after floods.