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For the past few years, the residents of Hassanabad in Hunza had started fearing the mountain stream that had been flowing beside their homes for generations. This village in Gilgit-Baltistan lies along the Karakoram Highway and the stream coming from the Shisper Glacier has been flowing through it for centuries. But in recent times, the increase in frequency of avalanches falling into the stream had started turning it into a potential precursor of disaster.

In July this year, the fear of Hassanabad’s residents turned into reality.

Malaika Bibi, a resident of the village, says the flood in the stream was so fierce that the ground itself began to collapse. The raging floodwater first swept away the highway and then her home. Seventeen other houses were also destroyed.

“We had built our house with the money earned through hard work and labour. Now, we have neither land nor the strength to rebuild the house. We are farmers but now we have neither crops nor fields for farming,” bemoans Bibi.

Her family could manage to save just their lives and a few precious belongings. Malaika is now living with her parents and three siblings in a tent, two kilometers from her village, provided by flood relief workers.

According to the Gilgit-Baltistan Disaster Management Authority (GBDMA), since the late July this year, at least 45 people have lost their lives in climate disasters across the province. Damage to crops, farmland, water channels, small hydropower stations, transmission lines, roads, bridges and infrastructure is being reported from left, right and centre, with no sign of halt in sight.

Eman Shah, special assistant to the chief minister (SACM) of Gilgit-Baltistan, admits that the situation is unprecedented and such conditions never went on a stretch for two consecutive months. He is simply flabbergasted.

“The fatal combination of cloudbursts and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) has caused widespread destruction. With very limited resources, our focus is yet on the rescue and emergency relief, while assessments of the damages are underway.”

According to Shehzad Baig, assistant director and admin coordinator at the GBDMA, cloudbursts are a new phenomenon for the region.

“In the past 15 years, only three such incidents were recorded here but now cloudbursts are happening almost every day now. These incidents have affected all districts of Gilgit-Baltistan, leaving no road safe, including the Karakoram Highway.”

Baig says Gilgit-Baltistan is home to more than 7,000 lakes with nearly three dozen of them, being glacial lakes, are highly dangerous because they can burst with the rise in temperatures and pressure, triggering major disasters.

A cloudburst is a climatic phenomenon and experts explain it in the following way.

Moist winds, when pushed upward along cool mountain slopes, condense into clouds that normally lead to rainfall. But if these clouds face intense and continuous pressure from warm, humid air rising from below, they are unable to release rain. Instead, water keeps building up inside them. The moment the pressure decreases or the clouds can no longer hold the load, they suddenly burst. In simple terms, a cloudburst means 100mm of rainfall (about 4 inches) within an hour or less time over an area of 20 to 30 square kilometers.

A glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) literally means a flood caused by a glacial lake burst. Glaciers are vast sheets of ice that remain frozen year-round on high mountains. Pakistan’s largest glacier is Siachen, stretching 76km. It is the second largest non-polar glacier in the world. It is followed by Baltoro which is 63km long. According to a new study, Pakistan has more than 13,000 glaciers and they are primarily located in northern Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

With rising temperatures, parts of these glaciers melt and form icy lakes. These lakes usually remain blocked by solid ice, rocks or debris. This is how many lakes turn into natural dams. But if the melting speeds up and more water flows into the lake or if the ice blocking its path begins to melt, the natural dam bursts. A mix of water, ice, rocks, and debris then rushes down the slopes with furious speed, sweeping away everything in its path. This phenomenon is called GLOF.

Dr Zainab Naeem, a climate expert, tells Lok Sujag that this year before the monsoon, the temperature in Gilgit-Baltistan was 6 to 7 degrees Celcius more than the average temperature which, on the one hand, led to the incidents of cloudbursts while on the other hand quickened the process of ice melting. She explains that the rise in the rate of glacier melting increases the pressure on the soil or soil layer frozen under the ice, which also starts sliding, causing glacial lakes to burst (GLOF).

She says that the cloudbursts and GLOFs in Gilgit-Baltistan are different in nature but the link between them is growing stronger. “Heavy rainfall caused by cloudbursts speeds up glacier melting and puts extra pressure on drainage systems. The weak points of glacial lakes cannot withstand this extra pressure and eventually burst.”

Dr Zainab explains that when a cloudburst and a GLOF occur simultaneously, one disaster amplifies the other. Torrents of rainwater, glacier ice and frozen soil debris rush downhill at a high speed, leading to major catastrophes.

Environmental expert Maryam Shabbir says that the problems of rapid melt of glaciers and GLOFs were already there but now their frequency is making life more difficult for the people of the region. She believes that the rate of temperature increase in mountainous areas is comparatively higher than in other regions and one significant cause of this climate change is the unregulated deforestation.

She emphasizes that the real issue is the unchecked emission of greenhouse gases at the global level.

“The world has failed to control the rise in temperature,” she points out.

In the 2015 Paris Agreement, all countries agreed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Dr Zainab Naeem says that the recent two-month-long floods in Gilgit-Baltistan show that the region’s weather patterns are changing in a major way.

“Floods for a short period used to occur in these areas earlier too, but now it seems that these continuous changes are taking the region to a long-term climate disaster,” she apprehends.

According to the GBDMA officials, part of the Shishper Glacier in Hassanabad has been breaking for years, and the danger still exists. However, this season there was no GLOF incident, all the damage was caused by cloudbursts.

However, Dr Zainab Naeem says the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and other departments of Gilgit-Baltistan work without proper coordination, which result in delays in disaster management efforts. “The lack of implementation of environmental laws and constructions in the river bed and stream pathways increases the risks. Early warning systems in the region are weak, and there is a severe shortage of technical expertise, real-time monitoring and funding. Local communities often have to rely on short-term donor projects, while these donor projects often overlook the local knowledge.”

Dr Zainab believes that national and regional environmental policies in the country are fragmented. The National Climate Change Policy and the National Adaptation Plan mention GLOF but they remain ineffective due to poor implementation.

She says that disaster risk reduction (DRR) should be a central part of the climate policy but it is often treated as a humanitarian or post-disaster measure. To address these weaknesses in Gilgit-Baltistan, she calls for an effective strategy to bring together technology, infrastructure, natural systems and local community.

Renowned Pakistani singer Quratulain Baloch was injured in an attack by a Himalayan brown bear in Gilgit-Baltistan on September 4. The incident took place in a temporary camp in Deosai (Astore district) where she was sleeping. She had to be shifted to Skardu overnight for medical treatment.

Quratulain had gone there with an international organisation to participate in relief operations during the floods. She has also participated in such works as a volunteer in the past.

Some people believe that the brown bear might have been provoked by someone or that something was cooked in the camp and it had reached there following the smell; however, Todd Shea, the founding director of the organisation, described these things as assumptions that have nothing to do with reality.

According to experts, bears also run away from humans and this was the first incident of an attack on a human in Deosai. Lok Sujag during its investigation into the attack has found that some people in Deosai feed brown bears and other animals with items like biscuits, roti or leftover food, due to which the bears have now started looking for food near the human activity. This has increased the risks not only for tourists but also for the brown bear, whose species was close to extinction in Pakistan three decades ago.

Deosai, also known as ‘the Land of Giants’, is a plateau at an average altitude of 13,500 feet. This is a major habitat for brown bears in Pakistan but why has their population decreased here? There are several reasons for the cut in numbers. Various parts of the brown bear have been used for centuries in Chinese and other traditional medical systems for human treatment. Its bile or yellow water is considered a cure for liver, eye diseases, hemorrhoids and stones, while the fat is used as a salve for skin diseases and joint pain.

In many parts of Pakistan, they have also been used in cruel sports such as bear-dog fights. Although this trend has now decreased, sporadic incidents are still reported. Bear cubs were captured for fighting and raised and trained by people of a specific community. Sometimes, to obtain a cub, the female bear was killed, whose reproduction is already slow because it gives birth after four or five years. In addition, local people also consider bears to be a threat to their livestock and often kill them if they are found nearby. In view of this situation, the government declared Deosai a national park in 1993 to protect wildlife, especially brown bears.

The creation of Deosai as a National Park has proven to be good for the brown bear. According to Muhammad Sajjad, district forest officer of the National Park, in 1993 there were only 15 to 17 brown bears left here, but now this number has reached 75 to 78. However, even after 32 years, their species has not come out of danger and the nature of these dangers has not changed completely.

Twenty-two days after the attack on Quratulain Baloch (on September 27), a brown bear was found dead in the pasture of Deosai, and doctors performed a post-mortem on it on September 28. According to the postmortem report, the male bear was blind in his right eye (it had no eye at all) and had become weak and emaciated due to a chronic liver disease.

However, it died after being trampled by a herd of animals. Although no evidence of human involvement was found in the death, the post-mortem revealed that the brown bear’s tongue and reproductive organs were stolen after its death, a case of which has been registered against unidentified persons.

This incident shows that there are still people involved in the black market of wild animal parts or those who want to do so. However, Faizan Dakhi, a wildlife officer posted in Gilgit, claims that anyone who has committed poaching in GB has been sent to jail.

“Complaints related to brown bears are very few. Even if there is a rare incident, we always take action once the accused is identified.”

Dr Muhammad Kabir, a researcher at the University of Haripur, has been working on the wildlife of Deosai. He says that illegal wildlife trade involves people from locals to international smugglers. Weak monitoring, limited resources, lack of communication among institutions and corruption all make this work easier.

A wildlife department official, speaking on condition of anonymity, says that there are only 24 employees to monitor the National Park, while at least 40 are required.

According to the department, in the past year, in addition to the killing of a brown bear (mentioned above), a black bear, two markhors, three ibexes and the capture of a snow leopard cub were reported in different areas of Gilgit-Baltistan.

A black bear was killed in Tangir Valley (Tangir district) and a video of it being thrown off a hill was uploaded on social media in July. A case was registered against the person seen in the video, but he has not been arrested yet, due to which the case has not progressed.

Experts believe that registering cases is not enough to eradicate these crimes. Dr Kabir believes that wildlife laws are also outdated. He gave the example that the maximum fine imposed for killing a brown bear till date is Rs300,000, the penalty for catching a live bear is even less, while the same bear is sold for many times more in the black market. These punishments cannot prove effective in preventing crime.

Dr Muhammad Kabir also mentions another legal dilemma, that people illegally hunt wild animals even by taking the help of the law of self-defense.

“This ambiguity has to be removed. Several new standards operating procedures (SOPs) have come up in the world for the protection of wildlife, which can be adopted.”

He says that in the light of new realities like climate change and settlement, these laws have to be reviewed and local communities have to be included in the implementation of policies.

Wildlife already feels threatened by the shrinking of its natural habitat, now the sudden drop in temperature and changing snowfall seasons are having further negative effects on the breeding, migration and hibernation (long winter sleep) of brown bears. These factors increase the tension between humans and wildlife.

Dr Kabir believes that if the protection of the livestock of the local community or compensation for their death is ensured in Deosai, then the justification for killing wild animals will disappear. This problem can be solved by introducing a fence around the national park and a cattle insurance scheme. This will also reduce the pressure on the staff responsible for monitoring the park.

“As far as feeding wild animals human food, cooking food or leaving leftover food in the park area is concerned, you should improve the training and monitoring system of tourists. Sustainable tourism and wildlife conservation have to go hand in hand.”

Effective implementation of laws is another issue. The government had banned camping in Deosai after the attack on Quratulain, but the next day people were there in tents, including families.

Dr Muhammad Ali Nawaz, a researcher on Himalayan brown bears, says that these wild animals used to roam freely in a mountainous area of 150,000 square kilometers. In the last 50 years, the increase in human population, infrastructure, livestock farming and unregulated tourism have narrowed their habitat, which is the main cause of conflict between humans and wildlife.

The Deosai National Park is spread over 986,000 acres (3,584 sq km) of Astore and Skardu districts to the east of Nanga Parbat. It is the region where two major ecological regions, the Himalayas and the Karakoram/Pamir mountain ranges, meet. In addition to the Sheosar Lake, these high pastures, rocky terrain and plains are fed by three rivers, the Shatang, Bada Pani and Kala Pani. Their confluence forms the Shigar River, which is an important tributary of the Indus River.

This environment is very conducive to the breeding of hunting and prey animals. Deosai is a sanctuary for many wild animals, including the Himalayan brown bear, Tibetan wolf, ibex, Tibetan red fox, Ladakhi Ural (sheep) and golden marmot. Most of these animals migrate to and from the Karakoram, Himalayan and Ladakh mountains via the Indus River valley. In winter, Deosai is covered with snow and in summer, when the snow melts, the rivers flow faster.

Not only do the trout breed here, but these waters also host 124 native and migratory birds, including the griffon vulture, golden eagle, loggerhead and peregrine falcon. In spring, this plateau is covered with willow, grass, saxifraga and other species of herbs. The entire area is filled with flowers, fragrance and rare butterflies. These plants and rivers provide abundant food for wildlife.

The Himalayan brown bear is also found in Nepal, India, China and Afghanistan. Dr Muhammad Ali Nawaz suggests that cross-border cooperation (Pakistan, India, China, Afghanistan) from Tibet to the Pamir mountains should be increased to protect the bear's natural routes. The Nanga Parbat area should be included in the Deosai National Park, which could provide a new habitat for the snow leopard and other animals.